The blame game begins
As I write this, the polls haven’t closed in the Massachusetts special. But the blame game has begun. Democrats and progressives are still hoping for a victory for Martha Coakley. But it seems clear if she wins it will only be by the slimmest of margins in one of the most Democratic and liberal states in the country.
Republican Scott Brown is not the reason for this race being so close. He’s the fortunate beneficiary. He deserves credit for seizing an opportunity and not believing conventional wisdom that a conservative like him couldn’t win.
There are enough finger-pointers to fill Faneuil Hall right now, but here are a few observations:
1. Internal polls reportedly had Coakley comfortably ahead less than 2 weeks ago. If that’s true, they may not have been polling frequently enough or not including enough Independents. We’ve seen it too often— major campaigns can be penny-wise and pound foolish about research. When the climate is volatile, the only way to catch changes is to poll broadly and be in the field constantly. I’m a big fan of rolling trackers for these kinds of races. They show you fresh movement on a dynamic basis– not just a snapshot in time.
2. The political climate in MA and the country was ripe for this to happen now. Conservatives and the GOP were emboldened coming off November victories in NJ and VA. The President’s numbers and Democratic congressional approval ratings have continued to slump as the health care debate has dragged on and unemployment has stayed the same. Deval Patrick, the Democratic Governor of the Commonwealth, is struggling for voter support with 64% disapproving of his performance. Massachusetts has also been rocked by a series of scandals involving corrupt Democratic legislators. The party’s brand is weak.
3. Anti-incumbency rules, insiders are out. For not being one of the boys, Martha Coakley was the closest thing in this race to an insider. She allowed herself to become the de facto “career politiican” with all of the liabilities and few of the advantages. Brown succeeded in being the populist in simple but effective ways from his used pick-up to his easy-going, friendly demeanor. But Coakley struck many voters as cold and aloof.
4. IDs matter and Independents have a mind of their own. As comfortable as Coakley was that Democrats had a more than 2 to 1 advantage in registration over Republicans, some around her seemed to forget that about half of Massachusetts voters are Independents. They took it for granted that most of these folks were just undeclared Democrats. Instead, we’re finding out that they are angry, disenchanted swing voters who are moderate in their views on most issues. Even worse, some recent polling showed Brown getting nearly a quarter of Democrats.
5. George W. Bush really isn’t working anymore. When they got in gear, it seems like Democrats just tried to feebly link Brown to George W. Bush. As the Black Eyed Peas would say that’s “so 2000-late.” We got more than our fair share of traction and mileage out of Bush in 2006 and 2008. It’s time to move on and freshen things up with some new ideas. Voters—especially disenchanted Independents— aren’t buying our tired Bush attacks anymore.
One thing is clear… Whatever happens today in Massachusetts, Republicans will be fired up and ready to go. And Democrats will be assessing blame.
With all those fingers flying, I just hope we can figure out a way to stop Independents from giving us the middle one.
